Going Long Equities in October
I went 30% long equities in my personal account on October 10th. I had exited equities entirely on May 1st, 2007, so I was able to miss almost all of the bear market.
Why in the hell would I do something like that?
1. I figured that the recession was about 1/2 over at the time. Since then, the recession has been made official and I still see the U.S. ending the recession in Q2 of 2009.
2. Stocks typically begin to rally 9 months before the end of recessions.
3. Even given reduced forward earnings, stocks were trading at cheap levels given my projections for 10 year interest rates. My views on 10y yields has been well vindicated.
4. Gains for the stock markets come from October to May.
Right now,the trade is down just under 10%, so I am off just 3% in my overall account. I hate to lose money.
Labels: trading

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